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At the same time, this week’s move does coincide with an ongoing positioning shift in the Treasury market. Hedge funds and other speculators had amassed a record level of bets on declines in Treasury prices through the futures market, with the heaviest bets lodged against 5-year maturities tateossian skeleton movement gear cufflinks uk online. But they have slashed those by more than half in the last few weeks, and that may have contributed to the out-sized rally in 5-year note prices in particular. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions..
“A lot of it is momentum,” said John Canavan, market strategist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in New York. “I do think it’s overdone with short-covering and unwinding of money-losing positions.”. Another current factor that was absent in previous inversion episodes is the Fed’s $3.92 trillion stockpile of bonds accumulated to soften the effects of the 2008 financial crisis tateossian skeleton movement gear cufflinks uk online. While it has been shrinking its holdings for more than a year, its bond portfolio remains the world’s largest and is seen as a force in suppressing longer-dated yields..
Those potential explanations aside, the U.S. economy is in the middle of its second-longest expansion on record, and economists and investors are mindful that a downturn is inevitable. Some business sectors like auto and housing are flagging due partly to rising interest rates, while debt-laden companies have raised concerns whether they could keep up with their debt payments as borrowing costs are rising. Fed officials have cited these developments that bear watching, but several of them have repeatedly cautioned about the inversion of yield curve as the most reliable indicator that a recession is on the horizon tateossian skeleton movement gear cufflinks uk online.
Some traders said the dramatic curve flattening may be overdone and may revert if the government’s November payrolls report out on Friday were to show solid jobs and wage growth. While the risk of the entire yield curve inverting grows in anticipation of slower domestic growth, the economy appears on sure footing due to a solid job market and mild inflation. Last year’s massive federal tax cut has bolstered business confidence, but trade tension between Washington and major U.S tateossian skeleton movement gear cufflinks uk online. trade partners looms as a possible economic drag, analysts said..
And, even if the latest kink in the yield curve is indeed the first signal of a downturn as many suspect, it does not indicate when it will actually begin nor how severe it will be. “It’s a sloppy predictor because at some point after yield curve inversion you could get a recession that could be one year, two year, three years,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research in New York tateossian skeleton movement gear cufflinks uk online. “And as far as what it means to markets, you could still have another very solid year after inversion.”..