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“European markets are quite vulnerable to a slowdown in emerging markets, not less given the domestic dynamic which is polluted by the political problems in Italy or Brexit,” he added referring to Britain leaving the European Union and the Italian government’s tug-of-war with Brussels over its budget. An escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war would force Dutch asset manager NN Investments to reassess its view that European stocks are due for a comeback in 2019. “It’s the biggest threat,” said Valentijn van Niewenhuisen, head of multi-asset at the firm diamond cufflinks tiffany uk online.
Acknowledging slowing growth, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for China and since then indicators from automobile sales to e-commerce trends and production data are suggesting the world’s second biggest economy is cooling somewhat. With creeping corporate and household debts, China is believed to have little room for maneuver for fiscal stimulus if it doesn’t want to weaken its currency, which the Trump administration believes gives it an unfair trading advantage diamond cufflinks tiffany uk online.
Data compiled by Morgan Stanley shows how European miners are not the only ones dependent on the appetite of material hungry China. For an interactive version of the below graphic, click here tmsnrt.rs/2QOVDqM. Aside from basic material providers, firms such as France’s fashion giant Kering (PRTP.PA), the owner of Gucci, and Switzerland’s jeweler Richemont (CFR.S) have a sales exposure of 24 percent. Analysts at Jefferies have nicknamed the contamination of luxury stocks a reverse “China Syndrome”, in reference to a 1979 movie in which a nuclear meltdown in the United States could make its way through the Earth to China diamond cufflinks tiffany uk online.
“It would appear that the reverse threat is now in place in the Personal Luxury Goods sector with fears of a sharp slowdown in China threatening to contaminate the entire sector starting in 2019.” diamond cufflinks tiffany uk online. Other companies under threat are the big German industrial powerhouses such as Siemens (SIEGn.DE) or BASF (BASFn.DE). “We’re concerned about what’s embedded in German industrials’ share prices. They embed continued profitability in China that’s very strong and continued growth and we’re skeptical that’s sustainable,” said Luiz Sauerbronn, director at U.S.-based Brandes Investment Partners, where he helps manage $30 billion..
But the reliance on the Chinese market isn’t only worrying investors. A new strategy paper from Germany’s influential BDI industry federation calls on firms to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market. While their presence there was once seen as a strength, it is now unsettling German politicians and industry as Beijing asserts control over the economy under President Xi Jinping. This weekend’s G20 meeting between the leaders of the world’s top two economies will be key for market sentiment, which has been battered by the months-long trade spat diamond cufflinks tiffany uk online.