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Market reaction reflected investors’ fears the Fed might end up making the kind of mistake Powell talked about – tightening policy too much because of a false read on where neutral is, at a time when clouds had begun to form on the economic horizon. There are many reasons why Powell would pick now to begin shifting his footing gold cufflinks designs uk online. Since a September news conference when he painted a rosy picture of where things stood, some economic indicators have softened; others, such as wage growth, have firmed, leaving the Fed for the first time in a long time pulled in different directions..
Then there is President Donald Trump, who has berated him for raising rates gold cufflinks designs uk online. And Powell’s own communications plans to end each meeting with a news conference starting next year mean he needs a clear message for each meeting, starting next month. At the Dec. 18-19 meeting, expected to bring the Fed’s target rate to between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent, Fed officials will clarify where things stand when they will update their projections on expected rate increases for 2019. Currently they foresee three quarter point hikes..
In remarks delivered two weeks ago on a late evening in Dallas, Powell refined his summertime message, explaining that just as someone in a room where the lights suddenly go out must “slow down” to avoid running into furniture, the Fed must do the same when nearing neutral to avoid missing signals from economic data gold cufflinks designs uk online. On Wednesday addressing a conference in New York, Powell amplified that message, saying that rates are “just below” the Fed’s range of estimates for neutral. In a sign of possible coordination or at least agreement among influential policymakers, his phrasing was the same as used by the Fed’s No. 2, Richard Clarida, just a day earlier..
“The markets really got a head fake in October, (but on Wednesday) he strongly walked back those expectations,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. Wednesday’s remarks sent stocks soaring and moved at least one analyst, Gregory Daco at Oxford Economics, to expect two instead of three rate hikes next year, as the Fed steers the economy toward a “soft landing” where it could keep growing at a slower clip without stoking inflation gold cufflinks designs uk online. After the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes, traders of interest-rate futures stuck to their bets that the Fed would slow rate hikes next year, to just one..
Part of Powell’s caution reflects inherent uncertainty over how the economy responds to interest rate increases. Speaking on Wednesday, Powell said the effects of Fed policy decisions “may take a year or more to be fully realized.”. Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon who follows the Fed closely, said it was a sign the Fed was ready to wait to see how past hikes will play out. “To me, this implies a willingness to be more patient in the lower end of the range of neutral,” he told Reuters gold cufflinks designs uk online.